How Will the 2024 Presidential Election Affect the Energy Industry?

Climate politics have been a central issue in U.S. politics during this presidential cycle. Democrats predominantly emphasize reducing emissions and advancing renewable energy, while Republicans prioritize affordable energy and energy independence. Recent global events, including conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, have thrust these policies into the American consciousness.

Trump’s Second Term Prospects

Under the previous Trump administration, the U.S. became the largest oil producer in history, largely due to technological advances in the field. The executive branch significantly influences federal lands, affecting states like Colorado, New Mexico, Alaska, and Utah, which have extensive federal oil and gas leases. In contrast, states like Texas, with predominantly private and state-owned lands, are less impacted.

A potential second Trump term might see a rollback of regulations, potentially simplifying federal permit applications for exploration companies. Expected changes could include relaxed methane emission standards, renewed LNG permit approvals, and eased refinery regulations.

Trump’s stance on electric vehicles has evolved, particularly following Elon Musk’s endorsement. In a recent conversation on X (formerly Twitter), Trump expressed appreciation for electric vehicles but opposed mandating their use. He has generally been against federal tax credits for electric vehicles. Naming Musk to his cabinet could influence this stance, though it’s challenging to predict.

Trump might attempt to repeal parts of Biden’s Climate, Energy, and Infrastructure Initiatives. However, his success would largely depend on the Congressional and House makeup post-November elections. Achieving these goals through executive orders could face significant judicial hurdles.

It is possible that energy prices will come down if Trump is elected, but it is important to keep in mind that if supply floods the market, people will drill less in response to lower prices.

Kamala Harris’s Second Term Prospects

Kamala Harris’s energy policy will likely reflect the priorities of her core voters, much like Trump's. Pennsylvania, a crucial state in this election cycle, may influence her to avoid radical policies like a complete fracking ban. However, she is unlikely to advocate strongly for oil and gas. The reality of governing often tempers green energy commitments, as seen when Biden approved the Willow project in Alaska following the spike in gas prices due to the Ukraine conflict.

A Harris presidency would likely champion a pro-green energy agenda while aiming to keep gas prices stable. However, should there be a significant spike in gas or oil prices, policy adjustments could be expected.

You could make the argument that oil prices tend to be higher under Democratic leadership due to increased regulation and fewer opportunities to drill. However, there are many other factors at play, such as OPEC decisions and technological advancements. Therefore, it's challenging to definitively attribute higher prices solely to Democratic leadership.

The Unspoken Boss: The Role of the Supreme Court

One of the most important factors for the Oil & Gas industry is actually the U.S. Supreme Court. Earlier this year, the Court quietly overturned Chevron Deference, a doctrine that allowed agencies to interpret laws as they saw fit. For example, the Bureau of Land Management could decide how laws applied to oil and gas companies. With this deference overturned, judges now have the authority to interpret laws, not the agencies. This change is arguably more significant to the oil and gas industry than the outcome of the next presidential election.

Sources

• Market Business Insider
• Politico
• NRDC

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